actuarial risk assessment
FORENSICS, PUBLIC HEALTH
A statistical method of estimating the risk of a particular event’s occurrence–e.g., the risk of a sexual offender committing a new sexual offence.
Actuarial methods are touted as more accurate than clinical judgement alone. However, one group that evaluated actuarial risk assessment instruments concluded they can’t be used to estimate an individual’s risk for future violence with any reasonable degree of certainty and should be used with caution or not at all.
Reference British Journal of Psychiatry (2007) 190: s60-s65 doi: 10.1192/bjp.190.5.s60childabuse.gactr.uga.edu/terms.phtml